Some of you quite feasibly, have been living in a cave for the last couple of years. This blog is definitely for you.
So the Bend, Oregon housing bubble has burst. Kaput. Popski. Bloop! Bendite local yokels can no longer say things like “The market is on a slight downturn”, or “We’re at the tail end of a 4 year cycle”, or any number of other idiotic pet names for what could end up being a long stretch o’ bad. As Duncan McGeary and others have been saying for quite some time now, the indicators were there. If it LOOKS like a Hurricane, SOUNDS like a Hurricane, and the forecast is CALLING for Hurricanes, then chances are, you’re going to have a Hurricane in your near future.
From what I’ve gathered, this one may hang around a while. Bend does have a history of real-estate ups and downs, most noticeably ending with a HUGE boom the year I got here. (Oct 2005) As a builder, this town was my playground. Minus a few weather delays, my crew had a huge run of residential and commercial projects that ran at a breakneck speed right until July of this year. Things immediately hit the wall, as they tend to do; though I think this time it surprised a lot of folk how quickly the situation turned south. Even now people are STILL vehemently denying the fact that we are in a housing slump, as more and more homes go unsold. Though the Company I worked for went belly up, I wasn’t alone. Roughly 35% of the small construction outfits have closed doors, and another sizable chunk have moved down south for more favorable markets.
Though other areas have had similar market foibles, Bend is unique in that real-estate aside; there isn’t a ton to keep this city afloat. Sure there’s tourism and retail, but when have those two EVER been able to sustain an economy alone? (Save perhaps a few tropical islands) Industry here is a joke. Posey Windows and Miller Lumber being the two biggest industries here are, you guessed it, construction related. Lotta good that does you when construction is flat eh? And now, the wicked cycle of loan backlash, and last ditch planning schemes is upon us. It was reported in the Source, that revenues from the planning division are DOWN $2.7 million for the current fiscal year, and are running 60% shy of what was projected back in July. Though it doesn’t take a genius to point out that when the housing market is based off speculation, and home prices are so far out of line with their actual value, things are going to take a turn for the worse. It seems like Bend somehow ignored every sign on the horizon, thinking that somehow, they were special, and wouldn’t fall victim to the inevitable.
Ironically, an unusually light December is upon us, prime building conditions when compared to my last 2 years here. Only problem? Nothing to build. No Permits to bid on, and no side-work to keep the tradesmen afloat till a major project arrives on the books. My current company has put all planned projects on hiatus; whether it’s permanent or not, only time will tell. Though it's an inconvenience to me, this year it’s a minor one. I set up several other alternative plans of action, and so far all of them have paid off. (Need a Paver Stone walk or drive? I’m your Man. A pump house perhaps? Likewise.) If however, I owned or had a fair stake in a medium to large scale construction company, I’d be singing a different tune.
